A fascinating question with baseball players at the end of their career as the Hall of Fame bell starts to ring is simple: did he show excellence on the field, or merely play very well at times?
When Beyond the Box Score published a piece yesterday claiming former St. Louis Cardinal Scott Rolen was a master of none in the game, I spit up a little of my coffee. Baseball analyst Dan Szymborski quickly weighed in via Twitter:
Scott Rolen's Hall of Fame prospects are questionable, but he was a master on the baseball field for many years. I would know, because I got an up close seat at the old Busch Stadium for Rolen's prime years as an elite MLB third baseman.
After a successful stint in Philadelphia, Rolen landed in St. Louis in the middle of the 2002 season at 27 years old in a trade that included Placido Polanco as the crown jewel heading back east. He would hit 14 home runs, slug .561, and drive in 44 runs in only 55 games that summer.
When he was traded to Toronto following the 2007 season amid a tiff with then manager Tony La Russa, Rolen had won four gold glove in St. Louis, put up an .879 OPS, and smashed 11 home runs. While his overall playoff stats aren't pretty, Rolen delivered a key blast off Roger Clemens in an NLCS series that few can forget.
The truth is the Cardinals got the best years of Rolen, save for a couple solid campaigns late in his career with the Cincinnati Reds. He lost at least 2-3 years of MVP caliber production due to an unfortunate collision with Hee Sop Choi near first base in the 2005 season. After that, Rolen was never quite the same, even after a very good 2006 season.
Rolen was a master at third base for many years. Did I mention he won a total of eight gold gloves? Sure, the award is a debatable attribute among career qualifying prospects these days, but forget the shiny statue and just remember the guy playing the position. Rolen was built like Achilles, but moved like a jackal at the hot corner. He's slide on one knee into foul territory snagging a hot blast down the line, and fire a strike to Albert Pujols' chest at first.
Rolen did this at an absurd rate. Let's put it this way. Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson should be impressed with Rolen. Looking at these two players is an interesting case for Hall of Fame worthiness.
Robinson didn't collect 3,000 hits or hit 300 home runs in his 23 year career, but he played in 15 consecutive All Star games, won 16 gold gloves, and finished with 78 WAR.
Rolen barely climbed over the 2,000 hit plateau(2,077) and only slugged 314 home runs, but he won eight Gold Gloves and put up 70 WAR in his 17 year career, which was six less seasons than Robinson. Rolen was a better hitter overall, posting an .855 OPS to Robinson's .723. The legendary Oriole was inducted back in 1983, ten years before Rolen was drafted by the Phillies out of high school.
It's quite credible to say Rolen will miss out on the Hall. If you look at his career numbers, it'll be impossible to find an MVP award, or string or ridiculous 7-9 WAR seasons. As I showed with the comparison to Robinson, there are glimmers of hope for the now 42 year old retired stalwart, but also doubt when scanning his career.
For me, it'll never get better for Rolen than the 2004 season. He got on base at an illegal rate, which was 40%, and he slugged at a 60% rate. OPS+ measures a player's OPS output against the rest of the league. Rolen's was 158 that year; 100 is league average. He was something else, and then the shoulder injury made his HOF prospects crash like thunder after riding like lightning for years.
Let's just not compare Rolen to a guy like Jason Heyward, who may retire with a handful of Gold Gloves, but couldn't hit his way out of a how-to-slug seminar if he reworked his swing sixty times. Let's not say Rolen was a defensive stalwart with some hitting ability. You don't average 4 WAR over a 17 year career without being a master of something. He was Gary Gaetti at third base, if Gary suddenly joined the cast of 300.
In the end, Rolen's specialty was improbable game saving plays at third base, but his curse was a shoulder injury. While that may eventually keep him out of the Hall of Fame, if you look among the greatest third basemen of all time, Rolen is having dinner with that company.
Scott Rolen's Hall of Fame prospects are a fine debate, but whether or not he qualifies as a master of his craft is far from a discussion. He was one of the greatest third basemen of all time, and a great hitter, but who knows if that will be enough? Look at how little of the vote his former teammate Jim Edmonds got recently? You never know with voting these days, but Rolen's case isn't a weak one. In fact, when dug into, it's quite solid.
Heck, I think he could still field the position better than any Cardinal that has been there ever since.
What do you think about Rolen? Let me know on Twitter, @buffa82, or via email at buffa82@gmail.com.
Thanks for reading and have a good weekend.
