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Reason #10 to get excited for 2018 Cardinals: Marcell Ozuna's debut

The first game of the regular season is just eight days away. Until then, we give you our top ten reasons to get excited for Cardinals baseball. We begin with the big offseason acquisition, Marcell Ozuna.
Feb 27, 2018; Fort Myers, FL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna (23) smiles in the dugout against the Boston Red Sox at JetBlue Park. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

By Tyler Brandt, from Cardsblog.com

Cardinals Make a Big Splash

After Giancarlo Stanton turned them down, the Cardinals wasted no time in rebounding. They acquired Marcell Ozuna for an absurdly low price. I still don’t believe that they traded a Major League starting pitcher or starting position player in that deal (I view Sandy Alcantara as a relief pitcher). But now that the offseason is nearing its end, we can shift our focus to what Ozuna will do for the Cardinals.

The 27 year-old outfielder is coming off of a career season in which he crushed 37 home runs. His on-base percentage rose to .376, more than 50 points higher than his previous career best. And he did all of this in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. Sometimes a player will have a breakout season that he can’t replicate. I don’t believe that to be the case with Ozuna.

Ozuna’s exit velocity has slowly climbed in recent seasons. Last season, he ranked 20th in average exit velocity, and he reached the optimal launch angle/exit velocity combination more often than Nolan Arenado did last year.

With that batted ball profile, the big numbers are there to stay. Much of this is reflected in projection systems for this upcoming season. Both ZiPS and Steamer have Marcell Ozuna pegged for 30 home runs in 2018, which would be a great addition for the Cardinals.

Big Improvement in the Corner

If you haven’t seen the full season numbers for Cardinals right fielders in 2017, they’re not pretty. Cardinals right fielders were at league average output last season. But the average right fielder is a better hitter than the league average hitter. Offensive output was about 10 percent better than average from right field across the league last year, with a .340 OBP and .458 SLG. The Cardinals were at just .326 and .439. Over the course of a full season, that’s worth about one full win.

ZiPS projects somewhat of a regression season for Ozuna, and even that projection has him at a .335 OBP and .492 SLG. That would put him roughly one full win above what the average right fielder was in 2017 on offense. If that’s the worst foreseeable outcome for Ozuna, then the Cardinals are in pretty good shape with a position that was vacant heading into the offseason.

As for his defense, Marcell Ozuna has graded out very well in the corner outfield spots. His career defensive numbers are down because of the time he tried playing center field. In just over 2000 innings in a corner spot, Ozuna has 23 DRS and 17.4 UZR. That’s roughly equivalent to adding two wins above average with your defense over the course of 1.5 seasons. With the Cardinals going back to Tommy Pham in center field this year, their outfield defense should be much stronger this season.

Power in the Lineup

One of the criticisms of the Cardinals last year was that they needed another power bat. Paul DeJong added some at the end of the year, and Pham was great, but they didn’t have a guy who is a home run threat each at-bat. Ozuna has always had the raw tools to be just that. He had some issues early in his career and didn’t take off right away like many expected. Nevertheless, his power was on full display last year with those 37 bombs.

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If the Cardinals are looking into it, I also think Ozuna could improve his power output with a launch angle adjustment. Ozuna’s average launch angle in 2017 was below ten degrees, which is not terrible. For some players, that might be optimal if they don’t hit the ball very hard in the air. Take a look at this plot of Ozuna’s 2017 launch angle versus exit velocity:

That last tick mark at the top is 100 miles per hour. Balls hit in the air above 100 MPH between 20 and 35 degrees in launch angle have a high probability of going over the fence. If he were to hit more fly balls next year, Ozuna would be right in that sweet spot much more often. He would likely push those home run projections over 35 for next season.

Whether he makes the adjustment or not, Ozuna will be the Cardinals biggest power threat in 2018. It’s not often that you can add 30 home runs to your lineup at such a cheap cost unless it’s a prospect callup. Ozuna will slot into the top four in the order somewhere among Pham, Matt Carpenter, and Dexter Fowler.

Those are four high on-base players with at least average power. The front end of this lineup is going to score a lot of runs this year, and the addition of Ozuna makes it really tough to get through the first inning for opposing pitchers.

The Marcell Ozuna acquisition has been talked up all offseason. We’re finally closing in on the point where we can see it come together. Check back tomorrow for our next reason to get excited for Cardinals baseball this season.

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