WASHINGTON — President Obama announced a plan on Tuesday to keep a contingency force of 9,800 U.S. troops in Afghanistan beyond 2014 and pull all American troops out of the country by the end of 2016.
Obama said that the U.S. remains committed to assisting Afghanistan on two narrow missions after 2014: training Afghan forces and supporting counterterrorism operations against al-Qaeda remnants. He stressed that the U.S. will only sustain a military presence after 2014 if the Afghan government signs a Bilateral Security Agreement.
Current Afghan President Hamid Karzai has declined to sign a security agreement before he leaves office this summer, much to the consternation of Obama. The president bluntly warned Karzai earlier this year that the "longer we go without a BSA, the more likely it will be that any post-2014 U.S. mission will be smaller in scale and ambition."
Both of the leading candidates to replace Karzai, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, however have voiced their support of signing the BSA if they are elected.
According to Obama's plan, U.S. troop levels would would be reduced by about half, consolidating U.S. troops in Kabul and on Bagram Air Base, by 2015.
By the end of 2016, the U.S. will draw down to a normal embassy presence with a security assistance office in Kabul, as we have done in Iraq, he said.
The size of the post-2014 force makes sense, but the rationale for removing all of them is lacking, said Michael O'Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution.
With 9,800 troops, the U.S. military can support about six bases along with their Afghan counterparts, O'Hanlon said. That force would could also maintain air bases, including drones, in key parts of the country.
Obama split the difference on what many experts on the region had suggested. Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has urged that 8,000 to 12,000 U.S. troops remain beyond 2014.
Seth Jones, an expert on Afghanistan at the RAND Corp., advocated the same in an article he co-authored late last year.
With about 10,000 U.S. troops, commanders in Afghanistan will be able to sustain a special operations unit to help Afghan forces, collect and analyze intelligence on insurgents and terrorist and call in airstrikes when needed, Jones said.
Further reductions should be based on the diminishing threat from insurgents in Afghanistan, he said Withdrawing all U.S. forces by 2016, Jones said, seems aimed at satisfying a domestic audience weary of war.
"In the end, nobody may be happy," Jones said.
Further reductions in 2015 could be justified as Afghan security forces improve. But a full withdrawal after 2016 would be a mistake, O'Hanlon said. He pointed to the experience in Germany, Britain, Korea and Japan, where U.S. forces remain long after wars have ended but the need to support strong allies remains.
"Where is the virtue in declaring now that the follow-on mission will only last two years?" O'Hanlon said. "It seems to me that keeping the American people safe should be the fundamental emphasis, not being able to say that we've totally departed."
Obama is scheduled to announce his plan in the White House Rose Garden at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Earlier on Tuesday, Obama spoke with British Prime Minister David Cameron, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel--all leaders of key NATO countries--to detail hiss plan. The president also spoke with Karzai on Tuesday morning.
The former commander of all forces in Afghanistan, Marine Gen. John Allen, had recommended more than 13,000 U.S. troops remain there after this year. And former Defense secretary Leon Panetta urged between 8,000 and 12,000. There are currently about 32,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan.
House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said he was pleased with the U.S. troop level of 9,800 after this year, but added that further withdrawals should be based on commanders' recommendations, "not an arbitrary number from Washington."
Obama is expected to continue to talk about his Afghanistan pullout plan, when he delivers a commencement address at the U.S. Military Academy on Wednesday which is expected to lay out his broad foreign policy vision in the aftermath of more than a decade of war in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Obama visited troops at Bagram on Sunday.