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St. Louis pandemic task force says loosening of restrictions has led to expected increase in COVID-19 cases

The last time the task force showed modeling data, the area was closer to the task force's "best guess" model, but is now near the less optimistic "slow decline"

ST. LOUIS — The St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force leader said the St. Louis area has seen an increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in recent weeks, but that development was expected due to the loosening of restrictions around the area.

Dr. Alex Garza, the head of the pandemic task force, said the area is most closely following the task force's "slow decline" model due to the increase in cases from the last time the task force provided modeling data. The last time the task force showed modeling data, the area was closer to the task force's "best guess" model, which is more optimistic.

"It's not to be unexpected from all the from the relaxation that we've had in in in some of our opening of businesses and things like that again," Dr. Garza said. "Hopefully we can get this number down again with interrupting transmission from instituting mask, wearing things like that. 

Credit: Task Force
St. Louis Pandemic Task Force modeling data for COVID-19 hospitalizations. The black line is the actual number, the blue is the 'best guess' and orange is 'slow decline.
Credit: Task Force
St. Louis Pandemic Task Force modeling data for COVID-19 ICU. The black line is the actual number, the blue is the 'best guess' and orange is 'slow decline.

Watch the full briefing in the player below or on the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force Facebook page.

On Monday, the task force said new hospital admissions decreased from 23 on Sunday to 14 on Monday. It’s important to note that this data is lagged two days.

The task force also reports the seven-day moving averages of hospital admissions has increased from remained at 21 on Monday.

The seven-day moving average of hospitalizations has also increased from 154 on Sunday to 156 Monday.

The task force reported 13 patients across system hospitals were discharged on Saturday — bringing the total number of patients discharged to 3,002. 

Here is the full break down of data from the task force:

  • New hospital admissions (data lagged two days) decreased — from 23 Sunday to 14 Monday.
  • The seven-day moving average of hospital admissions (data lagged two days) remained the same — 21.
  • The seven-day moving average of hospitalizations increased — from 154 Sunday to 156 Monday.
  • Inpatient confirmed COVID positive hospitalizations increased — from 160 Sunday to 167 Monday.
  • Inpatient suspected COVID positive hospitalizations increased — from 94 Sunday to 106 Monday.
  • The number of confirmed COVID positive patients in the ICUs decreased — from 46 Sunday to 40 Monday.
  • The number of confirmed COVID positive patients on ventilators decreased — 25 Sunday to 23 Monday.
  • Across the system hospitals, 13 COVID-19 patients were discharged yesterday, bringing the cumulative number of COVID-19 patients discharged to 3,002.

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