ST. LOUIS — In a briefing, the leader of the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force said the region is in a holding pattern after cases have leveled off in recent weeks.
On Thursday, Dr. Clay Dunagan said the reproduction number for the St. Louis area was 1.00, meaning the spread of the virus is not being slowed or sped up by the behavior of the people in the region.
"We are very much on a plateau right now and just marking time," Dr. Dunagan said.
While cases are remaining flat, hospitalizations and admissions have been decreasing, but slowly. The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the region Thursday was 503. That is the lowest number of hospitalizations since Aug. 9, but Dr. Dunagan said it is still putting stress on the health care system.
"That's still a lot, that's still taxing the health care system," he said, "but it is at least stable and not going up."
According to task force data, 125 COVID-positive patients are in the ICU and 82 are on ventilators. Dr. Dunagan said that shows how potent COVID-19 is. He said those numbers will likely result in more deaths, which have also remained consistent for the last few weeks.
On Thursday, the task force reported nine new COVID-19 deaths and a seven-day average of eight deaths per day.
Of the 503 COVID-positive patients in task force hospitals, 84% are unvaccinated. Dr. Dunagan said most of the 16% that are vaccinated have underlying medical conditions that affect their immune systems.
He said the task force hospitals are working to administer third vaccine doses to those with compromised immune systems in an attempt to increase their immune response.
He said the percentage of unvaccinated people in area hospitals shows that the vaccines are working. He said the vaccine will help reduce the chance of getting COVID-19, but it is most effective at limiting the chance of severe symptoms, hospitalization and death. With vaccinated people accounting for just 16% of the patient population, that has proven true in the St. Louis area.
"It's really to be expected that there would be breakthrough cases, but we can say that even in breakthrough cases, people who have been vaccinated are much less ill on average than people who have been vaccinated," he said. "And I don't want to skip over the fact that if you've been vaccinated, you are less likely to contract the illness."
Dr. Dunagan reported 24 COVID-positive children in task force hospitals, five of whom are in the ICU. In more than half of those cases, the patients are too young to receive a COVID-19 vaccine.
He said vaccination for those who are eligible can help protect the individual and also helps those that can't get vaccinated or do not gain the protection of the vaccine due to immune system issues.
"By getting a vaccination, you not only decrease your chance of getting sick and having severe illness, but you also protect other people who may not have as strong an immune system."
He said the St. Louis area is lagging behind the national average in percent of people with at least one dose of the vaccine and people fully vaccinated. In the St. Louis area, about 45% of people have completed their vaccination and just over 50% have at least started the process. The national average is 53.4% fully vaccinated and 62.7% with at least one dose, according to the CDC.
In talking about COVID variants, Dr. Dunagan said the Mu variant has not found the foothold that the delta variant has, which is why most of the focus is remaining on delta. He also addressed what he was a frequently asked question about variants being "a result of people being vaccinated."
"This is misinformation that has been circulating," he said. "Vaccination doesn't produce variants, it doesn't cause mutation. What allows mutation to occur is the ongoing circulation of the virus in the population."
He said widespread vaccination would actually have the opposite effect on new variations.
"The best thing we can do to decrease mutation rates is to get vaccinated."
The St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force is releasing the following data slides, combining figures from the four major health systems (BJC HealthCare, Mercy, SSM Health, St. Luke’s Hospital) that are part of the task force.
The data for September 9, 2021 is as follows:
- New hospital admissions (data lagged two days) increased – from 68 Wednesday to 72 Thursday.
- The seven-day moving average of hospital admissions (data lagged two days) decreased – from 75 Wednesday to 74 Thursday.
- The seven-day moving average of hospitalizations decreased – from 531 Wednesday to 524 Thursday.
- Inpatient confirmed COVID positive hospitalizations decreased – from 529 Wednesday to 503 Thursday.
- Inpatient suspected COVID positive hospitalizations decreased – from 44 Wednesday to 37 Thursday.
- The number of confirmed COVID positive patients in the ICUs decreased – from 127 Wednesday to 125 Thursday.
- The number of confirmed COVID positive patients on ventilators decreased – from 83 Wednesday to 82 Thursday.
- The number of COVID deaths decreased – from 10 Wednesday to 9 Thursday.
- The seven-day moving average of COVID deaths remained the same Thursday at 8.
- Across the system hospitals, 100 patients were discharged Wednesday, bringing the cumulative number of COVID-19 patients discharged to 27,063.
- Of the 464 hospitalized COVID patients in the three reporting Task Force hospitals Thursday – 75 are fully vaccinated. That’s 16% of the patient population.
- There are 13 COVID-positive children who are 0-11 years of age in Task Force hospitals.
- There are 11 COVID-positive children who are 12-18 years of age in Task Force hospitals.
- There are 4 COVID-positive children who are 0-11 years of age and in the ICU.
- There is 1 COVID-positive child who is 12-18 years of age and in the ICU.
- Thursday, staffed bed hospital capacity is at 90% an average across our task force hospitals. The ICU’s are at 83% of their total staffed bed capacity.