ST. LOUIS — The St. Louis Cardinals' home opener last week was put off, of course. But even if the 2020 season eventually gets going as coronavirus subsides, it may not be a good one for the team.
That's because the campaign would be a shortened one — perhaps drastically so. And a Wall Street Journal analysis found that weaker teams had a better chance to make the playoffs in that scenario, while favorites did not. It said it simulated seasons from March 26, when Opening Day should have been, and then every two weeks after that all the way until August. Each start day was simulated 10,000 times.
From the Journal:
"Tens of thousands of simulations showed that, as the season shrinks, the best teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees see their chances plummet. Wild-card contenders like the St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays see their chances slide. Meanwhile, teams that really have no business playing playoff baseball in a 162-game campaign—such as the Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres—suddenly have a chance."
As for an explanation? "Small sample sizes breed randomness," the analysis said.
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