As one St. Louis Cardinals phenom makes his impactful return in Alex Reyes this afternoon, a former phenom is quietly making a rather potent comeback.
Michael Wacha hasn't been an easy guy to trust in Cardinal Nation. He's the guy that you consistently rely on to help you do something, but his car consistently breaks down, rendering him useless.
Since he arrived in 2013 and stunned the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series, an enormous weight of expectation has been placed on Wacha's shoulders. The next Chris Carpenter? The next Adam Wainwright? Both? The weight hasn't been easy to bear since Wacha's right shoulder, namely his scapula, defected in 2014. Since then, durability issues have stalked the 26 year old's career.
Wacha rebounded from an injury-prone 2014 with a 17-win season in 2015, but then put up a 5.09 ERA in 2016 with another crash and burn landing in August. Last year, suddenly, he lasted the entire season, making 30 starts and posting respectable numbers for a 3-5 guy in the rotation. Wacha's 3.2 fWAR was among the highest on the team.
Still, going into 2018, the coming attraction trailer reel was undetermined. Would he suffer another setback? Was he no longer a top of the rotation caliber talent? Could you place both feet on the ground with his potential without getting burned? Did the new training and endurance methods before the 2017 season stick?
Eleven starts into the 2018 season and Wacha has passed every test with flying colors. If you had the Texas A&M product standing upward on June 1st with a 6-1 record while sporting a 2.71 ERA and impressive 3.43 fielding independent pitching mark, go buy a lottery ticket immediately.
Do you want to know something cool? Wacha has never posted a FIP over 4.00. The only thing that can beat this kid is his own anatomy.
Lately, Wacha is winning that game in spades. After failing to last five innings in New York on March 31, the right-hander has fired off ten starts in a row where he has lasted at least five innings and only given up three earned runs or less.
A deeper arsenal of pitches sure does help. Wacha still relies heavily on the four-seam fastball and circle changeup, but these days he's mixing the curveball in more and more with success. The cutter is also helping out. According to Brooks Baseball, Wacha is using his curve and cutter more than ever before. He's a legit four-pitch starter and teams are trying to adjust to this new guy.
Take Tuesday's start in Milwaukee for example. The Brewers had just beat up Luke Weaver, projected to have #2 starter stuff this year, in route to an 8-3 win on Memorial Day. Wacha stopped the bleeding rather quickly, going 6.2 innings, allowing only a single run on two hits.
A year ago, Wacha lasted just three innings against the Dodgers, presenting an ugly mirror to his 2013 postseason feats against LA. On Tuesday, in a game against a team running off with the division in May, Wacha stood tall and dominated in a hitter's park. It was easily his most impressive start in years.
How long can this go? With Wacha's shoulder and potential still butting heads, the answer is murkier than a politician's word. He is getting some luck on balls put in play and the line drive rate off his pitches is higher than last year while the groundball and flyball rates are down. Hitters are reaching him for a .267 average, but not seeing baseballs drops. Soon enough, Wacha may hit a wall for a few starts.
At least we know he can make a comeback. A year ago, I told my readers to pump the brakes on Wacha's resurgence, because there was simply little evidence the man had any consistency left in his tank. These days, Wacha is proving us all wrong, silencing the doubters one start at a time.
He's got a contract to pitch for, but also a legacy to restore. Wacha is arbitration eligible next spring, but he has to show that his shoulder can handle a second straight complete season. At the end of that line, we will know whether he is a backend starter or something more.
For now, I'm just glad he's back.
Thanks for reading.
