When does John Mozeliak's seat get warm?
In a season of change and roster shuffling, the winds of disgust haven't missed the front office. With Mike Matheny and the majority of his coaching staff gone and the club meandering around the .500 mark, the heat has now been applied to the President of Baseball Operations, aka the Senior General Manager.
When Bill DeWitt Jr. told the media that the club — which will gross over three million fans for the fifteenth straight season — isn't interested in being an OK ballclub that wins more than it loses, Mozeliak's task was finalized: fix this club or find a new job.
Or at least that's the way it should be.
This wouldn't be the first time Mozeliak had to recalibrate a roster. When he took over for Walt Jocketty in 2007, the club would miss the playoffs three out of the next four years in rebooting not only how the roster was built, but the mentality that went into putting it together. Together with Jeff Luhnow, Mozeliak and his team utilized the farm system, grew talent on their own and didn't wager it for short-term needs like Jocketty did. Walt thought of the farm as a place he could prune prospects when he needed to, but Mozeliak powered his legacy with it.
The plan worked. The Cardinals won the World Series in 2011 and reached it again in 2013, and won the division five times in Mozeliak's first eight years as General Manager. Then, things changed and started to crumble.
Luhnow went to Houston, and the Cardinals were penalized for stealing data from the Astros database in 2015. The Astros won the World Series, the Cardinals lost draft spots and credibility.
The teams led by the two minds that turned the Cardinals into perennial championship contenders have gone in different directions. One tumbling down the hill towards playoff-less Octobers and the other to the very top.
The question is simple: can Mozeliak get it all back and build another winner? Sure, Michael Girsch may hold the General Manager tag on his desk, but Mozeliak's is the one behind the wheel.
You don't have to look far to notice the contracts on the team that carry a distinct odor. Dexter Fowler may be playing better, but he's still batting well below .200 and doesn't give you what a high-paid outfielder should. Brett Cecil had some great years in Toronto and recovered last year in St. Louis, but he's been nothing short of an abomination in the bullpen this year. Greg Holland was given $14 million and released before August. When Luke Gregerson hasn't spent time on the disabled list, he hasn't looked that good on the mound.
But are these bad contracts or simply players who got a contract and turned down a dirt hill? Fowler was coming off a career year in 2016 and a World Series, but he also averaged 2.0 WAR for the past six seasons before he received the five-year contract.
Cecil was the second-best lefthanded reliever on the market behind Aroldis Chapman and found a way to be successful in the vicious American League East.
Holland was coming off a 40-save season and a one year deal looked like a no-brainer.
Gregerson was signed to a two year deal with the hopes of serving a late inning bullpen role.
What people are forgetting about Mozeliak this year are the smart contracts he's given out and the finds he's made:
- Did anyone have Texas Rangers outcast Miles Mikolas winning eleven games before August 1?
- Do we remember that the San Diego Padres are still paying the Cardinals for Jedd Gyorko's services?
- How about the extremely team friendly contract that Mozeliak signed Carlos Martinez to? The man isn't exactly pitching like a Cy Young caliber ace, but then again, he's not paid to.
- Yairo Munoz's emergence.
- Getting Tyler O'Neill for Marco Gonzales, and not missing the lefthander due to a bevy of young pitching.
- Signing Yadier Molina to a team-player friendly deal when some of the fanbase screamed not to even though they forgot the catcher was superhuman.
Mozeliak isn't perfect. The Cardinals are paying Seattle $15 million to let Mike Leake pitch for them the next three years in a signing that never seemed to work from the jump. The Cardinals were ready to hand Jason Heyward more money than the Chicago Cubs offered, but he chose the North Side.
Don't forget that the Cardinals wisely avoided handing Albert Pujols a ten year contract that the Angels are saddled with. As much nostalgia as No. 5 offers in milestones and legacy points, he is no longer worth $30 million a year. Mozeliak drew a line and resisted the urge. He's never put the team in extreme contract purgatory, and that should count for something.
How about all that strong starting pitching that's starting to show up? Do you think anyone could have plucked these beauties from the draft? Guys like Jack Flaherty, Luke Weaver, Austin Gomber, Daniel Poncedeleon, Dakota Hudson, and a guy named Jordan Hicks. Alex Reyes may have caught every season-ending disease or suspension the past few years, but he's still got a lot of time to flourish. Those are Mozeliak's moves on the chess board. He's the reason other teams call the Cardinals about their pitching.
While it's easy to think that Mozeliak should be as scrutinized as Matheny, you have to take into account that most of the contracts handed out recently to players weren't mindless acts of spending. There were reasons and evaluations, and the players simply didn't respond or play like their career stats intended.
Now, Mozeliak has to go to work. It's his time to shine and the seat that he rests on will get a little warmer with the team heading towards their third straight season without playoff access. Deserve has nothing to do with it when your team doesn't make October's roster. There's work to be done and that is how the current President of Baseball Operations should be judged.
One of the best follows on Twitter, @CardinalTales, gets it.
It's one thing to sign a guy with the knowledge that his production won't drop off the face of the Earth; it's quite another to not fix the car that is obviously broken down and not road-ready. The Cardinals are in trouble, but Mozeliak is determined to find a way out.
He hasn't wasted a second this past week commencing the roster overhaul. Holland, Tyler Lyons, and Sam Tuivailala were shipped out for more durable parts. The young guns were put on the active roster. The manager and hitting coach were asked to leave, and more trustworthy baseball men were asked to stay. Trades are already happening, and you can expect more by tomorrow night.
Unlike Matheny, Mozeliak actually did this before and found success. He built a World-Series-caliber team once upon a time, and that was just five years ago. The celebration dance has expired, but the trust shouldn't be gone just yet.
Let it be known that this past winter, the Cardinals made the best offer to the Miami Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton. If there wasn't a no-trade clause, Stanton would be in right field in Cardinal Red tonight. The team is willing to spend the money, as evidenced by the Heyward push, Stanton attempt, and various other contracts offers.
I do believe in order to be a World Series caliber club again, the Cardinals need a true superstar player, better defense, and a stronger bullpen with roles assigned. Can Mozeliak and Girsch pull that off? I happen to think they can. There's history to support that.
If they don't, one can expect their job status to change in the next couple of years.
The grace period is indeed over with the Cardinals. The old winning ways are gone. That doesn't mean the faith in John Mozeliak should also be vanquished.
Let's see if he has one more rebuild left in him before he burn the bow ties.
