Manny Machado may be a perennial 5 WAR player, but he also likes to create some war on the basepaths at the same time. For a St. Louis Cardinals team looking for an impact bat, the observation into the next 8-10 years of Machado should be thorough. But is he worth it? Let's take a look.
Machado's talent is unquestionable. At the plate, the right-handed hitter has blasted opposing pitching for a career .822 OPS and four straight 30 home run seasons, with the majority of those seven years taking place in the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards in Baltimore. Machado has bashed 30+ doubles in five seasons and accumulated 180+ hits in four seasons, and the OPS+ of 146 (100 is considered average) in 2018 speaks to a bat that isn't slowing down anytime soon.
Down the stretch, the Cardinals got a good look at Machado's ability, with some damage coming off his bat against them during important September baseball games. Machado can hurt another team with one swing of the bat and is only 26 years of age, a pair of ideals that any baseball team should covet as the free agency period opens up and the hot stove begins.
The defensive side of the game isn't a complete disaster, but it does leave a lot to be desired. The agony here is quite simple. Machado is better at third base than at shortstop. He has won Gold Gloves at third base, but resembles a below average talent at short. As Marcellus Wallace once told a punch-drunk Butch Coolidge in an Los Angeles dive bar, pride is messing with Machado's head here. If he were smart, he'd play where he is one of the best, instead of letting ego decide his lapses in the field.
How good at third base? According to Fangraphs, Machado saved 35 runs above average in 2013 and 14 above average in 2015. Overall at third base in over 6,400 innings, Machado has saved 84 runs. That's a real value at the hot corner, but Machado prefers shortstop, where he cost two teams this year 13 runs in the field. If Machado played third base regularly, he may be an easy 8.0 WAR player. Once again, pride is getting in the way.
Making things more complicated is the fact that the Cardinals already have a quality shortstop in Paul DeJong, who is superior to Machado in the field. Machado coming in to play third with DeJong and Wong protecting the middle of the field would give the Cardinals a huge upgrade on defense. It's too bad that wouldn't happen if the free agent came to St. Louis.
However, it's the antics of Machado in between the lines of the game that will darken his appeal. In the playoffs against two different teams, Machado intentionally spiked the first baseman's leg while running out a groundball. On a vicious backswing, he clipped the catcher's helmet in the World Series. When the game was on the line in a few different instances, Machado didn't hustle down to first base. If you can't get a guy to hustle on the October big stage, he won't be doing it during the hot summer months of the regular season.
Speaking of October, Machado doesn't exactly shine on that stage. Overall in the 2018 playoffs, Machado collected more strikeouts (18) than (hits), and he hit just .182 in the World Series against the Boston Red Sox. The plate discipline issues aren't a playoff occurrence either, with Machado striking out a guaranteed 100 times without walking much. Don't expect that to improve.
While I won't deem an MVP-caliber player unreliable due to a lack of hustle (just look at Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina's groundball running styles), the dirtiness of Machado should make one pump the brakes on going all in on his talent. When Machado spends a whole season away from Camden Yards and starts to see his ability decrease in the later years of this upcoming contract, will he be worth the trouble? For his career, Machado's slash line on the road is .271/.319/.442, which is moderately weaker than his .295/.353/.534 work on home field.
When the talent starts to fade, is he a useful $30 million player? Both of those are required questions for the Cardinals to answer. When it comes to the image of a ballplayer who will surely be the face of your franchise for the next decade, a complete breakdown of what he offers is key.
Over the course of my lifetime, the Cardinals have stayed away from clubhouse problem childs, especially ones that carry a guarantee six zeroes on their price tag. John Mozeliak's only big contract went to Matt Holliday in 2010, a wholesome fella whom any mother in St. Louis should want their daughters to seek out such humble qualities in a man. Holliday was a good guy and teammate, and a safe bet for a cost-conscious team. Will they bet the house on Machado?
Personally, I'd rather have Bryce Harper, because he's left-handed and carries an aggressive attitude and playing style that Cardinals fans would grow to adore and cherish along with the big time talent. However, there's no doubt the effect that Machado would have on the Cardinals. He would change their lineup, and after a couple years slumming it at shortstop and an inevitable move to third base, would reshape their infield. He is a charismatic personality whose problematic tendencies look a lot better when he is wearing the same jersey as your favorites and knocking in key runs.
Don't forget that unlike Harper, Machado has at least four seasons where he's put together a WAR of at least 3.4. Three times, he's finished with 6.0 WAR or better. Consistency overall is in Machado's corner.
In the end, is it worth it? Machado can slug with the best of them, and offers a Gold Glove (if that still holds value) at a certain position. He does strike out a lot, doesn't walk, hits a wall in the playoffs, and likes to play dirty in the field though. He will surely cost you at least $300 million, and possibly more. At 26 and only at the beginning of his prime, Machado is a hot commodity, and one that the Dodgers may not retain. With the New York Yankees recently saying they weren't in on Harper, I can see Machado going to the city with the brightest lights.
At the end of the day, I'd bring in Machado for the right deal, because his talent is game-changing, and I think an environment like St. Louis would help his maturity on and off the field. He's not left-handed, but the World Series hopes for the Cardinals shouldn't live and die on which side of the plate Machado stands on.
But I know what you are thinking...which one do you want and which is more realistic? Out of the two-Harper and Machado-the choice is easy for me. I'd go with the former Washington National outfielder. I also happen to think Harper is more realistic, due to his off-field temperament and his adoration for St. Louis' baseball history.
While he's a game changing type talent and isn't slowing down, I wouldn't hand Machado's agent a blank check like I would Harper's guy, Scott Boras. Both are desirable, but one is more so. Maybe it is the dirty actions of Machado pulling my shoulder away slightly, or the reliance on Camden Yards. It could be the plate discipline, or just an overall gut feeling. Overall, Harper just looks better.
What do you think? Tell me @buffa82 on Twitter. Let's talk about it.
