WASHINGTON, D.C. — Major League Baseball’s most anticipated free agent class since 2000 has finally arrived – even if it’s not as potent as once imagined.
Still, a group led by a pair of franchise players should provide significant intrigue from the winter into the spring – and likely unearth more than a billion dollars in salary from franchises saving up for this very moment.
As the off-season begins in earnest, USA TODAY Sports takes a look at the top 57 free agents available, from the elite to those near the bubble to receiving a major league contract.
Rankings based on projected future performance and perceived market value:
(Age as of April 1, 2019; 2018 team)
***
1. Bryce Harper (26, OF, Nationals): There is clearly a 1 and 1A in this class, and we’ll give Harper the edge over Manny Machado by the slimmest of margins, largely due to intangibles. The lifetime deals these men can expect – a decade or longer in term, more than a quarter-billion dollars in value – are almost as much about branding and marketability as production. And while Harper is not the LeBron of his sport – there is none, a problem for another day – he remains the game’s blue-chip endorser and among its most recognizable faces, particularly among younger fans. Oh, and he’s also hit 184 home runs with a lifetime .900 OPS through his age-25 season. The question: How many decline years will a club pay for in this era?
2. Manny Machado (26, SS/3B, Dodgers): Three months younger than Harper, Machado benefits from playing on the left side of the infield and near-robotic production: He’s hit between 33 and 37 home runs while playing at least 156 games the past four seasons. No, Machado’s curious playoff behavior shouldn’t affect his stock. Unlike Harper, however, Machado likely won’t have his old team deeply involved in the bidding, reducing his suitors by one and denting his leverage just a bit.
3. Patrick Corbin (29, LHP, Diamondbacks): He misses bats – 246 strikeouts in 200 innings – posted a reputable 3.15 ERA in a hitters’ park and has already professed his love for the Yankees. Yes, Corbin is going to get paid. He’s almost two years younger than Dallas Keuchel, the more-renowned free agent lefty on this market, and gave up two fewer hits per nine innings (7.3 to 9.3) as well.
4. Dallas Keuchel (31, LHP, Astros): Forget about “the opener” and “bullpenning” for just a moment and realize such set-ups still require somebody to credibly absorb 200 innings. Four years removed from his Cy Young Award season, Keuchel remains that man. While he gave up an American League-high 211 hits, Keuchel stayed healthy, clocked 204 2/3 innings pitched and could enjoy a nice bump should he land in the National League. While his ERA rose from 2.90 to 3.74, his Fielding Independent Pitching dipped from 3.75 to 3.69. Still a safe bet.
5. Craig Kimbrel (30, RHP, Red Sox): Push out of your mind, for the moment, an October filled with tipped pitches and yanked sliders and far too many white knuckles in New England. Kimbrel remains on a Hall of Fame path as a closer and struck out 96 batters in 62 1/3 innings last season, with his 89% save percentage (42 of 47) in line with Mariano Rivera’s career mark. He may not be as versatile as other arms, but there remains plenty of value in locking down the ninth inning.
6. A.J. Pollock (31, OF, Diamondbacks): Health has been an enemy and now age is no longer his ally, a tough spot for a player for which speed is important. Still, Pollock won’t hurt you in center field and at least one team will dare to dream on his 2015 season (20 homers, 39 steals, .315 average. .367 OBP) while realizing last season’s 113-game campaign (21, 13, .257, .316) may be closer to his new normal.
7. Nathan Eovaldi (29, RHP, Red Sox): In an era of sober and highly-calculated free agency, here’s a vote for recency bias and buzz. Not often can a player meaningfully boost his stock in the postseason, but then again, few have had Octobers like Eovaldi. He started games, finished games, was deployed to get the highest-leverage outs – oh, and maintained his 100-mph velocity north of 90 pitches. While Eovaldi has undergone two Tommy John surgeries, he’s barely two years removed from his most recent procedure. Name a staff that couldn’t use this guy.
8. Michael Brantley (31, LF, Indians): Just two years after shoulder surgery limited him to 11 games, Brantley enters free agency off consecutive All-Star appearances and myriad signs he’s aging well. “Dr. Smooth” produced a .364 OBP and a 123 OPS-plus, while striking out just 60 times in 631 plate appearances.
9. Marwin Gonzalez (30, INF/OF, Astros): Perhaps no player will benefit more from not having a qualifying offer attached. With only so many Harpers and Machados available, clubs that value a Dodgers-style platoon system will swoon for Gonzalez, a switch-hitter who saw time last season at first base (24 games), second base (32) shortstop (39) and all three outfield spots (73 games in left, most notably).
10. Adam Ottavino (33, RHP, Rockies): The least-heralded (and least-paid) member of Colorado’s bullpen now gets to cash in. Ottavino boosted his strikeouts per nine innings to 13 and his ERA-plus to 193. Freed from Coors Field, Ottavino’s versatility as a bullpen weapon will be cherished.
11. Andrew McCutchen (32, OF, Yankees): Does character count in free agency? If so, McCutchen’s market soared in 2018 after endearing himself to a pair of veteran clubhouses and fan bases in San Francisco and New York. If not, well, McCutchen remains one of the game’s most disciplined hitters, posting a .368 OBP and hitting 20 homers. Still a capable corner outfielder who will lengthen any lineup.
12. DJ LeMahieu (30, 2B, Rockies): Not every team fills his position with a full-time player these days, but LeMahieu should find a forever home after leading NL second basemen with 18 Defensive Runs Saved. While his 88 OPS-plus and .276 average are underwhelming, the 2016 batting champ is a good fit in a lot of places, most notably Washington or back with the Rockies should they trade Nolan Arenado.
13. J.A. Happ (36, LHP, Yankees): Is age just a number? After going 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts after a trade to the Yankees, Happ may be the ultimate test of this concept. He offers predictability – a 3.90 ERA forged over 12 seasons – and recent upside, as his 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings matches his best mark since 2012. How many years will clubs be willing to let that ride?
14. Josh Donaldson (33, 3B, Indians): Pillow talk, or payday? The 2015 AL MVP was limited to just 52 games by a calf injury and may be inclined to take a one-year “pillow” contract to rebuild his value. Then again, getting teams to gamble now, rather than try again at 34, may prove more lucrative. Donaldson’s career numbers – a .367 OBP, .874 OPS and 138 OPS-plus – may inspire a moderate bet for a team figuring his skills, if not his body, will continue aging well.
15. Nelson Cruz (38, DH, Mariners): Forget Ichiro – the Boomstick may be the one to play until he’s 50. Safeco Field again could not contain Cruz, who slugged 37 home runs and made his fifth All-Star Game in six seasons. Age and his DH-only status will limit the market, but the power shows little sign of diminishing.
16. Charlie Morton (35, RHP, Astros): Like Gonzalez, the Astros did not extend a qualifying offer to Morton, greatly simplifying a tricky free agent case. Morton talked of retirement earlier this season but posted a 15-3, 3.13 campaign in which he struck out 201 batters in 167 innings. He won’t be in line for a mega-contract, but could get a massive shorter-term deal with a team firmly in contention.
17. Yasmani Grandal (29, C, Dodgers): Grandal was extended the $17.9 million qualifying offer by the Dodgers after a season in which he slammed 24 home runs and got on base at a .349 clip. He was poor behind the plate and with a bat in his hand in the playoffs, but a career .341 OBP and status as the top catcher on the market enhances his value.
18. Daniel Murphy (34, 2B/1B, Cubs): Knee surgery recovery delayed his ’18 debut until June 12 and advancing age and an already negative fielding profile will hurt him. Yet Murphy remains one of the game’s elite pure hitters and hits the market just a year removed from an NL-best 43 doubles and a second Silver Slugger.
19. Joe Kelly (30, RHP, Red Sox): Like Eovaldi, Kelly will benefit from a boffo postseason and the game’s general trend lines. As a reliever with an average fastball of 99 mph who gave up just one earned run in 11 1/3 very high-leverage postseason innings, Kelly should find a buoyant market of big-money contenders who envision him as a missing piece to a pennant winner. He gave up just four home runs in 73 regular season appearances.
20. Hyun-Jin Ryu (32, LHP, Dodgers): Since pitching 192 innings in his rookie year of 2014, Ryu has yet to eclipse 152 innings. He was the Dodgers’ best pitcher for much of the season, but a serious groin injury shelved him for three months. Ryu ranged from great to OK to bad in four postseason starts.
21. Jeurys Familia (29, RHP, Athletics): Familia struck out 83 in 72 innings, but other markers, such as a 1.22 WHIP, are inferior to his peers. Familia’s 124 career saves (in 146 opportunities) will still carry weight in the market, though not as much in an era when bullpen roles are more fungible.
22. Mike Moustakas (30, 3B, Brewers): No free agent had a more disappointing winter than Moustakas, who finally accepted a one-year, $6.5 million deal after hitting 38 homers in 2017. He hit another 28 and was a key cog for a playoff club after a trade sent him to the Brewers. “Moose” should find more favorable conditions this winter, in that more teams are spending money and he won’t have a qualifying offer attached.
23. Andrew Miller (33, LHP, Indians): Weep not for Miller, who’s coming off a four-year, $36 million deal, but he could have doubled that dollar amount this time had he maintained good health one more season. Now, after posting a 4.24 ERA and getting shelved by knee and shoulder injuries, Miller will see how heavily teams will pay for his past. Probably pretty well: That backfoot slider isn’t going anywhere.
24. Adam Jones (33, OF, Orioles): Jones’ home runs fell from 26 to 15, but he’s gamely fought off decline in batting average (.281, .278 for his career) and OBP (.313, .318 lifetime). As a corner outfielder with diminishing power, Jones’ market will be limited, but he can absolutely help the right contender.
25. Jed Lowrie (34, 2B, Athletics): He’s enjoyed a wonderful two-year renaissance with the A’s, hitting 23 homers and driving in 99 in 2018 and getting on base at a .356 clip with a 120 OPS-plus. It’s expected Lowrie will re-up once more with Oakland, where he could be trade bait should Franklin Barreto emerge as a full-time player.
26. Wilson Ramos (31, C, Phillies): The Buffalo couldn’t stay fully healthy, as a hamstring injury shelved him just before the trade deadline, but he will have a market this winter after batting .306 with a .358 OBP and .845 OPS. Ramos can’t match Grandal’s power, but he’s steadier overall, and younger than other catchers on the market.
27. David Robertson (33, RHP, Yankees): Perhaps the least-heralded of the Yankees’ impressive relief corps, Robertson just keeps chugging along, with favorable peripherals – a 2.97 FIP, a 1.03 WHIP and 11.3 strikeouts per nine. Can he maintain that with a fastball in the 92-mph range?
28. Jose Iglesias (29, SS, Tigers): Who needs a light-hitting, slightly above-average shortstop? Iglesias posted a .347 OBP in his All-Star season of 2015, but it fell all the way to .288 in 2017 before a bounce to .310 in 2018.
29. Zach Britton (31, LHP, Yankees): The reliever walk-year curse was quite real in 2018, as Britton’s right Achilles’ tendon – torn in December 2017 – never fully allowed a return to form. That marks two injury-plagued years since his epic 2016 season, though Britton’s WHIP improved from 1.34 to 1.16 after a July trade to the Yankees.
30. Steve Pearce (36, 1B, Red Sox): His fifth AL East stop was the charm: Pearce was World Series MVP and produced a .394 OBP and .901 OPS in 50 games after a June trade to Boston. Can he match the two-year, $12.5 million deal he signed in his first dip into the market?
31. Lance Lynn (31, RHP, Yankees): Perhaps 2019 will bring Lynn the stability - a multi-year home, a contract before the New Year, a consistent role - that 2018 lacked. After signing in April and a predictably rough beginning, Lynn steadied a bit after a July 30 trade to the Yankees, where he struck out 61 in 54 innings. May have most value in a starter/reliever swing role.
32. Joakim Soria (34, RHP, Brewers): Soria produced a 4.09 ERA after his trade to Milwaukee, but paired it with a 2.93 FIP and 1.09 WHIP over 26 appearances. A consummate professional reliever, he still strikes out more than a batter an inning, and still represents a solid late-inning option for a contender - or, to be flipped to a contender at the deadline, which has happened three times in the past five seasons.
33. Nick Markakis (35, OF, Braves): He kept the line moving in Atlanta, posting a .366 OBP and enjoying his first All-Star game. But modest power (14 homers in 705 plate appearances) out of a corner outfielder will have its limits on the market.
34. Asdrubal Cabrera (33, INF, Phillies): With 23 homers and a 112 OPS-plus, Cabrera had an objectively decent year. He's hitting the age, however, where teams will doubt he can approach that again, particularly after his OBP dropped from .351 to .316.
35. CC Sabathia (38, LHP, Yankees): A 3.65 ERA over 29 starts would typically bump you up a bit, but it could be Yankees or nobody for Sabathia. That's not a bad deal for either side.
36. Adrian Beltre (40, 3B, Rangers): Speaking of players strongly tied to one club, does Beltre have the stomach to gut out one more year of Rangers misery? Will the club welcome back his gravitas and grant him a victory lap on his way to Cooperstown? Even at 39, he was a 2-win player over 119 games.
37. Jesse Chavez (35, RHP, Cubs): Joe Maddon describes Chavez as "the Ben Zobrist of relief pitchers," and not long after a July 19 trade to Chicago found himself in high-leverage spots for the Cubs. He shined, producing a 1.15 ERA while sporting a fastball in the low 90s. Will be a valuable member of somebody's staff.
38. Brian Dozier (31, 2B, Dodgers): Another case of bad timing, as Dozier was struggling at the plate when a July 31 trade sent him to a new league, another pitcher's park and into a part-time role in L.A. He still hit 21 homers, but batted just .215 with a .305 OBP. Given that he preceded that with 34- and 42-homer seasons, some team figures to buy low and get him back in the right situation - and perhaps get a bounce-back bargain.
39. Trevor Cahill (31, RHP, Athletics): As the lines continue blurring between "starter" and "reliever," Cahill certainly qualifies as "Just Plain Pitcher." He helped rescue the A's rotation after a rash of injuries and posted a 3.76 ERA over 21 games, 20 starts. But Cahill was also effective as a reliever for the 2015-16 Cubs and his ability to fill myriad roles is a boon.
40. Anibal Sanchez (35, RHP, Braves): Despite his 6.41 ERA in 2017, the Twins played a hunch on Sanchez but didn't see it through, releasing him in mid-March. The Braves scooped him up and, six months later, he was starting Game 2 of the NL Division Series. Can he repeat anything close to his 2.83 ERA and quality starts in 12 of 24 outings? Someone will surely risk guaranteed money that he can.
41. Cody Allen (30, RHP, Indians): Like teammate Miller, Allen hit the wall a year before free agency, his ERA leaping from 2.94 to 4.70 and his strikeout/walk ratio crumbling, from 4.38 to 2.42. He converted 27 of 32 save opportunities, but his inherited runners scoring percentage rocketed from 14% to 29%. He'll find a job, but not likely the lucrative payday befitting the shutdown reliever he was from 2014-2017.
42. Tony Sipp (35, LHP, Astros): A lefty specialist with a high odometer - 580 appearances over 10 seasons - Sipp reversed two years of decline with a fine 2018 campaign, fashioning a 1.03 WHIP, striking out 42 in 38 1/3 innings and holding left-handed batters to a .191 average and just one homer in 76 plate appearances.
43. Carlos Gonzalez (33, OF, Rockies): Gonzalez proved capable in a largely full-time return to Coors Field, hitting 16 home runs and producing a 99 OPS-plus. Can't expect much more than that going forward, certainly.
44. Kurt Suzuki (35, C, Braves): All catchers seemingly reach a point where their careers abruptly end or go on forever. Suzuki seems destined for the latter fate. Productive at the plate (12 homers, 108 OPS-plus), sound behind it and valuable overall (2.1 WAR), Suzuki caught 105 games for the playoff-bound Braves and remains capable of holding down about two-thirds of a time share at catcher.
45. Derek Holland (32, LHP, Giants): Holland picked a good spot to rehab his career after five injury-plagued or poor seasons, dragging his ERA below 4 for the first time since 2013 and striking out 169 in 171 1/3 innings. An ERA-plus of 109 and 3.87 FIP will likely lead someone to believe he can come close to a repeat away from AT&T Park.
46. Ian Kinsler (37, Red Sox): Despite a career-low .301 OBP, Kinsler still racked up 2.4 WAR and inspired the Red Sox to trade him for their championship drive. Still a capable defender - he won his second Gold Glove in three years - and excellent baserunner, Kinsler's days as a potent leadoff man are likely over, but he could reprise his role as a second-base platoon for a contending club.
47. Wade Miley (32, LHP, Brewers): After walking an AL-high 93 in 2017 and suffering groin and oblique injuries early in 2018, Miley got healthy and made 16 effective starts for Milwaukee before starting three more in the playoffs. His October usage could be a preview of his next life: As an "opener" or perhaps in starts of four to five innings, piggybacked with a power right-handed reliever.
48. Martin Maldonado (32, C, Astros): A finalist for his second consecutive Gold Glove, Maldonado's pedestrian offensive numbers (.225, nine homers, .627 OPS) are overcome by his excellence behind the plate, where he's an above-average pitch framer and shuts down the running game.
49. Matt Harvey (30, RHP, Reds): Remember how we mentioned this free-agent class isn't as potent as once envisioned? Harvey's demise is a big reason why. His midseason trade to Cincinnati didn't spark a revival - the Reds won 11 of his 24 starts and he went 7-7, striking out 111 in 128 innings with a 4.50 ERA. He remained upright and out of trouble, though. Does anyone gamble on his old magic returning?
50. Robinson Chirinos (34, C, Rangers): Stop us if you've heard this one: Capable backstop, league-average hitter, .338 OBP. Yep, lots of Chirinoses out there this winter.
51. Gio Gonzalez (33, LHP, Brewers): Gonzalez produced a career-worst 1.44 WHIP, and teams may doubt whether he can regain his inning-eating form at a point in his career he elicits far fewer swings and misses.
52. Freddy Galvis (29, SS, Padres): Galvis will catch the ball and occasionally hit one over the fence - he hit 20 in 2016, just 12 last season - but also struggles to put it in play, striking out 147 times in 2018. That odd combo paired with a .299 OBP makes him a stopgap option at best up the middle.
53. Jonathan Lucroy (32, C, Athletics): Still a valued staff leader, Lucroy backslid significantly at the plate in 2018, hitting four home runs, batting .241 and producing a 71 OPS-plus. With his pitch-framing skills relatively neutral and inferior to most of his fellow free agent catchers, Lucroy may struggle to match the one-year, $6.5 million deal he received in his first go-round on the market last winter.
54. Garrett Richards (30, RHP, Angels): Oh, he won't make much impact on 2019, but look for him to possibly follow the path plowed by Nathan Eovaldi and Drew Smyly, who signed two-year deals even as the club knew they'd miss most or all of Year 1 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Given his prior excellence and the finality of getting his elbow repaired after years of avoiding it, teams may jump on the chance to tuck away an asset for 2020.
55. Denard Span (35, OF, Mariners): He can still get on base (.341 OBP) and plays a capable left field, making him a decent platoon option with the right club and in the right ballpark.
56. Daniel Descalso (32, INF/OF, Diamondbacks): A poor man's Marwin Gonzalez, Descalso can play anywhere on the diamond save for shortstop and center field; he'll bring a career-best .353 OBP and 13 home runs into free agency.
57. Josh Harrison (31, INF/OF, Pirates): With his OBP (.293) and OPS (.656) dropping to his lowest levels since 2012, versatility is Harrison's primary calling card. He's just a year removed from an All-Star appearance, so there's a chance 2018 was something of an aberration, but it appears Harrison's value going forward is as a part-time, multi-position guy.