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Opinion | Why the Cardinals should go after Dallas Keuchel

It's not a hope and prayer with this lefty. Keuchel has stats to back up the reasoning behind a push for his services.
Credit: AP
Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel throws against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning in Game 3 of a baseball American League Championship Series on Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2018, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

If you're a seasoned veteran of watching the game of baseball, you know full well that February and March don't pass without a price.

When it comes to the St. Louis Cardinals, the pound of flesh is usually steep.

A week couldn't pass before the first casualty of spring training arrived in the right shoulder of starting pitcher, Carlos Martinez.

If the Cardinals are trying to flex payroll muscle, why aren't they lifting?

The troublesome limb that helped doom his 2018 season has already started to bark in the early stages of 2019, causing the young hurler to inform coaches that something isn't right. The result: Martinez is taking two weeks off from throwing, and will be re-evaluated on March 5. Yikes!

It didn't take long before Cardinals Twitter became a fiery place to be on Tuesday afternoon.

Fans demanded action while others preached patience and depth. Some reminded us how smart John Mozeliak is while others brought Ballpark Village 2 like it has anything to do with payroll being dispensed.

Where am I at on the need for starting pitching? I'd like more assurance from the group, but I don't see much action coming.

The Athletic's Mark Saxon wrote a piece about the Martinez injury that brought up a potent point about the team being fed up with the righthander's offseason weight lifting program.

Instead of training to keep the right limb loose and ready, Martinez went into full-bulk mode and overcooked the sensitive ligament. After a 2018 season where St. Louis Post Dispatch reporter, Derrick Goold, reported that the team wanted more in-between start focus from Martinez, this latest development doesn't bode well for long term marriage between employer and employee.

You don't go rogue on your cash cow.

Martinez wasn't just playing with the front office; he's messing with "the Yadfather," Yadier Molina's regimen as well.

Right now, the certainties in the rotation are Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, John Gant, Adam Wainwright, and Michael Wacha if he recovers fully from the left oblique injury he suffered last June.

Austin Gomber is also in the mix, contending with Wainwright and Gant for the last spot. Alex Reyes could start in the bullpen, but eventually will break into the rotation at some point in 2019. Dakota Hudson and Daniel Ponde de Leon were both starters in the minor leagues who became a jack of all trades for the big league club last season.

So you are have Mikolas, Flaherty, Gant, and Gomber for full-bore health. If Wainwright is indeed feeling 100% and makes it through camp, you have an asset there, albeit one that has declined the past three seasons.

Wacha's recovery is heading in the right direction, but a full camp is required to fully recoup the trust there.

You have a lot of promise, but you also lack certainty in reliable productivity.

Depth is good, but what if it is unproven and subject to injury? Can you lean on Gant or de Leon for a long stretch if Martinez is out for a considerable period?

Due to the former Atlanta Brave being out of options, one would assume Gant gets Martinez's innings over a younger arm, at least until further notice.

Gant is fine and all, pitching better than expected, but in 13 starts during the second half, he had a WHIP of 1.431, and he finished with 4.5 walks-per-nine-innings average for 2018. Gomber, Hudson, and Ponce are untested. Wainwright is a question mark at best.

All of this leads to Dallas Keuchel, the remaining marquee starting pitcher on the free agent market.

Unlike the previous arms I mentioned, this guy is a proven producer on the mound. It's not a hope and prayer with this lefty; Keuchel has stats to back up the reasoning behind a push for his services.

Keuchel may have only won 12 games for the Houston Astros last year, but he threw 204.2 innings, compiled a 3.74 ERA (3.69 FIP), and doesn't walk a lot of batters.

During the four season spanning from 2014-17, Keuchel finished with a sub-3.00 ERA and at least 26 starts in three of those seasons. You may recall he won 20 games, pitched 232+ innings, and won the Cy Young in 2015.

While he isn't as efficient as he was four years ago, the man can still rack up innings and give a team assurance. After finishing up arbitration, Keuchel is a free agent, and due to the chilly offseason, sits out there as coffee is sipped this morning. While Gomber looks to be something fierce sooner or later, can he give you what Keuchel can in 2019?

With Wainwright presumably stepping down after 2019 and Wacha possibly departing, coupled with the Martinez uncertainty, the Cardinals may want to grab some proven talent for the next 2-3 seasons.

Keuchel turned 31 in January, but showed in 2018 that he can still give a team innings and be a reliable arm. Also, getting him out of Minute Maid Ballpark couldn't hurt.

What about his splits? While he offers lefties a .281 batting average, their slugging percentage dips below .400. Same for right-handed sluggers. How did he hold up last season? Keuchel's stats for the first and second half don't differ much across the board.

He did make just 49 starts between 2016-17, but Keuchel's low start total of 23 is what Wacha and Wainwright could be dreaming about for the rest of their careers.

There's also the 18.1 in player WAR, via Fangraghs, over the past five seasons. Keuchel is also a four-time Gold Glover award winner, winning his fourth last season.

In the end, it all comes down to hedging your bets on a lot of youth, or bringing in some assurance to fill innings and starts up. Think of Keuchel as a left-handed more contact friendly version of Lance Lynn. He's not flashy and his best days may be behind him, but you can never have too much pitching. I'd take Keuchel over Gant/Wainwright.

As the baseball gods have proven, things have a way of working themselves out.

It's perfectly reasonable to run with Jack Flaherty and keep a spot open for Gomber and Reyes, but turning your back on Keuchel, especially with Martinez concern, would be uncivilized.

Toss more than a few 'ifs' into a rotation in spring training, and things could get messy. Reach out to Scott Boras about a southpaw pitcher instead of a superstar right-fielder.

You can be shrewd in some areas, touting your internal options as gold. It makes sense to pad the landing of the young birds with some veteran insurance. That's all.

What do you think?

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