The old adage in baseball is that pitching wins championships. Then again, what if that team can't score runs? How does pitching really win in the end?
Example: if the Cardinals acquired Madison Bumgarner, it wouldn't move the needle on scoring runs. Bumgarner couldn't pitch any better than Jack Flaherty did on Tuesday night in a losing cause. The young man mixed speeds and pitches, moving the ball in and out on hitters with filth-and he didn't get the win.
The good news is over the course of July, the Cardinals are scoring runs at a high rate again. After today's thrilling if emotionally draining 6-5 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Cardinals are scored four or more runs in nine of the 12 games this month. A certain star player and a breakout outfielder have been the backbone of the turnaround, but we will get to them later.
That mark sure beats the low scoring waves of May and June, where the team couldn't find a rhythm at the plate. They scored four or more in 13 May games and just 15 June games. With 14 games to go this month, I am sure they will get to at least 16 games.
This is a big deal because like gas prices and consumer products, the trend should be monitored. What a team does over 15-20 games can tell you how they are progressing, and what needs to be fixed. I don't care if the competition is light, because this team had issues scoring off Miami last month. At the end of the day, it's about going out and scoring enough runs to keep your pitchers honest yet off the edge.
With the higher run output, the starting pitching has been strong. Before Daniel Ponce de Leon's misstep today, the rotation put out six straight high-quality starts. There's a comfort in taking the mound and knowing you don't need to be Greg Maddux that particular summer day.
The amazing part is that the team is doing this without their best hitter this year in Marcell Ozuna, who is recovering from broken bones in his hand. Matt Carpenter is on the IL, as is Yadier Molina with a thumb injury. That's three key producers from last season missing. I imagine the lineup only improves when they return. No, it won't be like making a trade, but getting healthy proven hitters back is always a good thing.
How are they doing this? Simple. Certain players are stepping up and others are just settling into their career norm.
All Paul Goldschmidt needed to do was slug again. For weeks, he couldn't put together a 15 game stretch where his slugging percentage climbed over .400. He was swinging at bad pitches, missing others, and unable to put a trend together. Yet there he was on Wednesday hitting a game-winning three-run home run. He's slugging .519 over his past 15 games, collecting three home runs and three doubles. He's cut down on his strikeouts (only 3 in his last 7 games), and starting to walk more. Selection at the plate is improving.
Tyler O'Neill has stepped up in a big way this month. With Harrison Bader reeling, O'Neill has given the lineup a boost with a .321/.357/.604 slash line the past 15 games, including four home runs just this last week. He's the cleanup hitter that disappeared when Ozuna went down.
Dexter Fowler is 15 for his last 50 with an on base percentage of .368. He's making plays in the field and getting on base. Kolten Wong is slowly starting to heat up over the past week. Matt Wieters has shown some offensive resourcefulness in Molina's absence as well as throwing baserunners out.
All it took was proven players do what was expected of them. No new players or outside sources ... at least not yet. The lineup will need reinforcements in multiple areas, and the deadline should be interesting with the division still in hand. The important thing is the lineup is no longer a dormant location. Runs are being scored, power hitting is back, and perhaps this team can put something together.
Granted, they are still just 48-46, a disappointing record for a team with a top five payroll. There can't be games like Tuesday where Flaherty's work is wasted and the team can't muster more than a single run against Pittsburgh. After some action in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the team will finish out July against Houston and the Cubs, a pair of first place teams who have been active already or will be at the deadline. A good test for a group trying to find traction.
I won't sugarcoat it. The chances of the Cardinals making the playoffs isn't even 50%. It's going to take a collective effort to push this train into the promised land of cool October weather. While it's fair to be hesitant to jump on the wagon, it's a cognizant endeavor to notice the lineup turning it around without a few vital parts around.
These days, the Cardinals are scoring more than four runs more often than they were the past two months. Improvement counts in a long season.
Pitching may ultimately win championships, but run-scoring is the road it takes to get there.
