There was a time when if someone asked you if the St. Louis Cardinals should acquire Madison Bumgarner, the answer would be, "why didn't you do this yesterday?"
Over time, though, even the best pitchers can lose a little appeal due to age, usage, and the general rigors of Father Time.
When I looked at Bumgarner, I always saw an Adam Wainwright clone. Someone who could will their team to a win even on days where he didn't have his best stuff. A cook who could whip up a meal with bare ingredients and little equipment. Low burners, no spatula, and old seasoning. Bumgarner is a bulldog, and always will be.
The real question is, as the Cardinals have noted they will be looking for starting pitching help this season, how much is a guy like Bumgarner worth at age 29 in his tenth full season in the big leagues?
The San Francisco Giants have stated the interest in trading the southpaw, but the asking price will be four prospects. The Cardinals have a deep farm system, but four prospects for a guy in his walk year is steep. Yes, Bumgarner is a free agent in 2020, but can he still pitch?
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The answer is yes. Over the last two seasons, Bumgarner has put up an earned run average of 3.30 with a healthy Fielding Independent Pitching mark of 3.97, which doesn't drift too far from his ERA. He doesn't walk a lot of batters, and he can pitch into the sixth and seventh inning of games.
The issue with him in 2017-18 is health. Bumgarner only made 38 starts combined in the past two seasons, due to freak accidents. In 2017, he crashed his dirt bike and missed a few months. Last spring, he took a line drive off his hand in spring training, which ate up a portion of his regular season. All intents and purposes, Bumgarner is just fine. The shoulder and knees are experiencing nothing other than normal aging digression.
Bumgarner isn't injury prone; he's more like accident prone, and that can be controlled. This isn't like Michael Wacha and the stress reaction in his right shoulder. This is taking away motorcycle keys and telling to get out of the way of a line drive.
While the strikeouts-per-nine innings went down the past two seasons, hanging around 8.0, Bumgarner has picked it up in the early going of 2019. The ratio is not at 9.2, and he is only 2-4 due to an inept Giants offense. He made a start on opening day against the San Diego Padres, going seven strong innings and getting nothing to show for it. The ERA and FIP are solid through eight starts. The velocity is still there. Bumgarner is throwing 92 mphs this season, which is as fast or faster than his 2016 speed.
If you want premium Bumgarner, it's not happening. The 2016 Bumgarner is most likely gone. The guy who made 34 starts, totaled 226 innings and struck out 251 batters. He qualified for the All-Star Game, Cy Young, and MVP that season. He was a freak in 2015 and 2016, so sadly, that guy isn't coming back. At the very least, it's unlikely.
What he can still do is pitch. He can put up a 3.50-3.75 ERA and go 6-7 innings, which is about as easy for this Cardinals staff to do as walking on a tightrope between skyscrapers. While the 2016 polish may not be possible, the 200 innings isn't out of reach. A healthy Bumgarner gives a team the innings they need. Look at the 49.2 innings in eight starts this season. A full season at that rate gives you 200 innings.
Here's the thing. Carlos Martinez is coming back as a reliever this month, so don't count on him being a starter anytime soon. Alex Reyes punched a wall and is out for most of this month. He needs work in Memphis. While I like Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon, there are only so many experiments you can take inside a season where the goal is contending for a World Series. Dakota Hudson has improved over the past 3 starts, and that's encouraging, but you don't need two inexperienced guys in a rotation trying to go 5.2 innings and not get bombed.
Like Dallas Keuchel, Bumgarner gives you the assurance that things will be handled on a pitching mound. There's more than hopes and dreams there. He's also highly efficient in the postseason, posting a ridiculous 2.11 ERA in 14 postseason starts. In the World Series, Bumgarner has a 0.25 ERA in 4 starts, striking out 31 and walking just 5. They lock people up for that much filth and thievery in some countries.
If you want to make a run, Bumgarner is your guy. He will cost you prospects, and eventually money, but the numbers suggest he can still get big outs and rise up when you need him most. In his career, he's made the most starts in August and September, where he has posted ERA's of 2.80 and 3.26 respectively. Let's just say as the calendar ages, Bumgarner's pitching becomes more graceful and dominant.
Is he worth the four prospects? Yes. There's no way the Giants could ask for four premium prospects, so it could very well be a mix of players from all minor league affiliates. You could re-sign him in the offseason to a modest deal, and still get 3-4 solid years out of him.
Remember this. The Cardinals are really going for it this year. You have aging players in Wainwright and Yadier Molina, expiring contracts in Marcell Ozuna and Michael Wacha, and a real effort in this team to grab #12. Bumgarner could represent a push for that and a fine weapon for the next 3-4 seasons.
Is he a better bet than Keuchel, who would only cost a compensation pick in next year's draft and money? Yes, because Bumgarner is younger, better, and has been pitching for the past 40 days against Major League hitters. The longer the holdout stretches with Keuchel, the more doubt one should gather from his 2019 worth. Bumgarner is warm and ready.
Will this deal be done soon? No. I expect the Cards to ride with what they got into late June and July, seeing how Martinez and Reyes fit. The Giants will hold steady as well, counting their chips. Eventually, Bumgarner will be firmly on the market. San Francisco doesn't want to pay him, so expect a deal. Based on his age and asking price in the offseason, he'd be a good replacement for Wacha and/or Wainwright next season.
Madison Bumgarner may not be what he used to be, but he's still a quality arm that the Cardinals could use. Think about this way. Bumgarner has gone seven innings twice this season. The only Cardinal to do that is Miles Mikolas. If that doesn't show you the help this team needs in the rotation, nothing will.
Bring on the Bum.
