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When to expect the first frost around St. Louis

October begins incredibly warm. We know it won't stay that way. For most of us, the average first frost will occur during the month.

ST. LOUIS — The leaves are beginning to change and we know cooler air can't be too far away. Autumn is here even though it doesn't feel like it in St. Louis as we start October. The month of October brings changes to Missouri and Illinois and that usually includes the first frost of the fall season.

While the month has started with well above-average temperatures, a change for the first weekend of October is coming. Two cold fronts will sweep across the region during the middle of the week. By the weekend, early morning temperatures will drop into the 40s, and perhaps a few of the colder outlying areas drop into the 30s. 

On average, the first frost of the year occurs in portions of the Ozarks during the first week of October when the temperature drops to 36 degrees.

Credit: Missouri Climate Center
The average date of 36-degree temperatures, which often leads to the area's first frost.

With the colder air arriving this weekend, the chance of temperatures dropping into the mid-30s in a few colder spots has risen to over 50%. The National Weather Service said on Monday afternoon, a 50-70% probability exists of low temperature reaching 36 degrees. The most likely area is in the lowest, protected valley areas of Crawford, Dent, Iron, Reynolds and Washington counties in Missouri. 

Click here for the full Weather First forecast.

Credit: NWS
@NWSStLouis post on this weekend's upcoming chilly weather.

The latest forecast drops temperatures into the middle 30s over the coldest parts of the Ozarks by Sunday morning. With a clear sky and light wind, patchy frost is becoming more likely in the colder portions of the 5 On Your Side area by Sunday morning.

Credit: ksdk
Patchy frost is possible for areas southwest of St. Louis early Sunday morning.

The first freeze, when the air temperature drops to 32 degrees, can be expected in the colder areas by the middle of October on both sides of the river. 

Credit: Illinois State Water Survey
Illinois' first freeze dates

The first freeze in the immediate metro St. Louis area is usually delayed due to the urban heat island. This tends to keep temperatures a touch warmer. In the immediate metro, during most years, the first freeze will not happen until the first week of November. A hard freeze, defined as a low temperature of 28 degrees or colder, occurs in most of our region during the very end of October in the colder locations and in the month of November elsewhere.

The current thinking is October will be above average temperature-wise overall. There most likely will be two or three cool snaps through an otherwise relatively warm month.

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